China revised growth figures for 2012

The Chinese government announced a few days ago have downgraded the growth of GDP in 2012 to 7.7% against 7.8% previously, an unusual revision for the second world economy.

However, despite this remarking, is still the lowest growth made ​​by China for 13 years. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which refers to the revision on its website, said it had considered “the most complete and reliable baseline data.”
China’s GDP for 2012 was recounted to 51.894 billion yuan (about 6.360 billion), down 38 billion yuan, the NBS said, adding having conducted more appropriate-cash changes in the financial sector, manufacturing and the retail sales and wholesale sales.

The Middle Kingdom, like many other countries, often conducts revised its GDP publications, but rarely fall as here.

The review itself has been described as “preliminary” by the SNB, suggesting that the figures could be recorrigés again.

croissance en baisse en chineAlthough well below the figures for the previous year (10.4% in 2010 and 9.3% in 2011), this level of 7.7% is beyond the goal of an annual growth of 7 5% that Beijing had set for 2012, and he reiterated in 2013.

However, the Chinese economy has experienced a sharp slowdown in the first half of this year , falling to 7.5% in the second quarter , which raised doubts among experts on the country’s ability to achieve its goal.

However, economic data released in August , much more encouraging than expected , had largely mitigated fears of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
The government had announced in July and a sharp rise , well above forecasts , industrial production , and an increase of more than 13 % of retail sales. Customs had announced for their high growth of trade in the country.

The SNB also published at the end of last week ‘s PMI purchasing managers , which was established in August to its highest level in over a year , showing a further acceleration in manufacturing activity.

Reliability questioned by the highest levels

According to the Prime Minister Li Keqiang, the economic growth in China should be maintained above 7%, the lowest level tolerable by the government. This was announced shortly after a series of measures to stimulate activity , including through tax exemptions and more flexible rules for investing in infrastructure such as railways.

The new team of leaders in power in Beijing, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping invested in March, however, repeatedly displayed his desire to ” restore some order” in the Chinese economy, increasing domestic demand detriment of imports and investments in infrastructure.

The reliability of Chinese statistics, including GDP , however, is regularly questioned by economists, and Li Keqiang, himself had once expressed his doubts about it. He also admitted in 2007 to the American ambassador in Beijing that some Chinese figures were “handcrafted” and some statistics such as GDP “can only be consulted for information.”

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